Showing 4566 Documents for "economic issues"
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- Paper No. 27, February 2004 - By Andrew K Rose Abstract I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large data set covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25-year samples, controlling
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- MAS Staff Paper No. 46, June 2007 - By Andrew K. Rose and Saktiandi Supaat Abstract We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate.Theoretically a country experiencing a decline in its fertility rate can be expected to have higher savings, lower investment, a current account surplus, and accordingly a real depreciation. We test and confirm this hypothesis, controlling for a host of
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- MAS Staff Paper No. 47, August 2007 - By Tan Yin Ying, Alvin Eng and Edward Robinson Abstract With the evolution of neoclassical growth models, it became increasingly evident that factor accumulation alone was insufficient for sustained growth. Empirically, the growth experience of many countries and the numerous extensive cross-country regressions provided evidence that good policies and sound institutions were important factors in explaining divergent economic outcomes. These factors were playing
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- MAS Staff Paper No. 33, August 2004 - By Jean Tay, Saktiandi Supaat, Shivani Tharmaratnam and Edward Robinson Executive Summary 1 This paper provides a historical overview of developments in Singapore's balance of payments over the years. We first analyse the trends in the current account balance using the saving-investment (S-I) and international trade perspectives. Then, we study the composition of the financial account, focusing on the nature and volatility of such flows. Finally, we
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 23, September 2002 - By Ting Su Chern, Tu Suh Ping, Edward Robinson, Peter Wilson and Ho Shih Chuan Abstract This paper uses dynamic shift-share analysis to examine Singapore's export performance in electronics and chemicals in the export markets of US, EU and Japan over the period 1988 to 2001. It compares Singapore's export competitive position against that of China, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan. The analysis identifies 1996 as the turning point, at which Singapore's
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- MAS Staff Paper No. 42, December 2005 - By Kit Wei Zheng, Ong Jia Wern, Kevin Kwan Tai You Abstract China's ascendancy in manufacturing has altered the regional production landscape. China has become a major competitor to the East Asian 7 (EA-7) economies of Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, both for inward FDI to the region and exports to the G3. China has become a major competitor in not just exports of consumer goods, but increasingly in low and mid-range
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 15 June 1999 - By Financial & Special Studies Division, Economics Department Executive Summary 1 Monetary policy in Singapore centres on the management of the exchange rate. There is no independent policy targets for either interest rates or money supply. This choice of monetary regime is based on the following assumptions: 1 (a) Money supply is essentially endogenous, or adjusts passively, to economic activity. Changes in money supply thus have a limited impact
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- MAS Staff Paper No. 43, April 2006 - By Bennett T McCallum Abstract Although the policy regime of the Monetary Authority of Singapore is centered on exchange rate management, it is fundamentally different from a traditional fixed exchange rate arrangement. Instead, the exchange rate (a trade-weighted index) is important primarily in its role as an intermediate information or "instrument" variable in a procedure used to achieve the primary objective of low inflation, with some consideration also
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 1 May 1997 - By External Economies Division, Economics Department 1 Strong economic growth in the ASEAN-3 countries since the late 1980s has led to rising inflation and widening current account deficits as excess domestic demand spills over into imports. Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia experienced a worsening of their current accounts in the 1990s, culminating in a marked deterioration in 1995. Malaysia's and Thailand's current account deficits reached 8% of GDP
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 12 May 1999 - By Financial and Special Studies Division, Economics Department Executive Summary 1 Short-term interest rates are typically expected to fall as an economy slows down and heads toward a recession. In response to comments that a negative-sloping yield curve for US Treasury securities is the harbinger of deflation in the US economy, this paper assesses the reliability of the yield curve in providing information about future inflation and economic activity