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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 2 October 1997 - By Domestic Economy Division, Economics Department 1 Singapore has experienced a healthy rate of job growth over the years, with unemployment maintained at a low 2% in recent years. However, of greater significance to a resource-constrained economy like Singapore is the quality of such employment growth. As the economy undergoes economic restructuring, there is considerable displacement and replacement of jobs both within and between industries
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 5 May 1998 - By Domestic Economy Division, Economics Department 1 The importance of the services sector in the Singapore economy has increased steadily over time, particularly over the last one-and-a-half decades. Its share of total output and employment in the economy has risen at the expense of the manufacturing sector, and today accounts for about two-thirds of value-added and seven-tenths of employment. The declining share of manufacturing output has been accompanied
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 7 August 1998 - By Domestic Economy Division, Economics Department 1 Singapore's international trade has experienced rapid growth over the last three decades, averaging 14% p.a. during 1965-1997. Despite the vital role played by external trade in Singapore's economic development, there has been relatively little analysis on the dynamics of its trade linkages with major trading partners. Using the technique of trade intensity analysis, this paper examines Singapore's
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 10 December 1998 - By Domestic Economy Division, Economics Department Executive Summary 1 The primary objective of monetary policy in Singapore is to promote low inflation as a sound basis for sustained economic growth. Indeed, economic policies in most industrial countries over the past two decades have given prominence to reducing the rate of inflation. In fact, a number of central banks have in recent years introduced what can be called "inflation target regimes
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 9 October 1998 - By Domestic Economy Division, Economics Department Introduction 1 A major contributing factor to the success of the Asian Newly Industrialised Economies (ANIEs) of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia has been their robust export performance. Much of the export growth is underpinned by a significant expansion of manufactured exports, reflecting the rapid industrialisation of these economies. 2 This paper employs the technique
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 4 February 1998 - By Domestic Economy Division, Economics Department 1 Singapore's total exports have seen rapid growth over the last three decades, reflecting the outward orientation of the economy and strong growth in world trade. But given the openness of the economy, the spatial pattern and composition of Singapore's exports are susceptible to changes in regional and global economic trends. This paper employed the methodology of shift-share analysis to examine
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 3 December 1997 - By External Economies Division, Economics Department Part I: Is the Renminbi Fairly Valued? Motivation 1 Is the renminbi undervalued or overvalued? This question has perplexed analysts because of conflicting signals from the economy. Since the exchange reform of Jan 94, the renminbi has appreciated in real terms against the dollar reflecting the high inflation. This gave rise to concerns that the renminbi was becoming overvalued, thereby eroding
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 6 May 1998 - By Domestic Economy Division, Economics Department Executive Summary 1 This paper provides an empirical examination of the behaviour of exchange rates in Singapore. The analysis is in two main parts. 2 First, Section 2 of the paper reviews the alternative measures of the real effective exchange rate (REER). Three measures of the REER are evaluated, based on different deflators, namely relative consumer price indices (CPI's), wholesale price
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 8 October 1998 - By External Economies Division, Economics Department Main Conclusions Since the Asian currency crisis erupted in Jul 97, there has been incessant speculation that China would be forced to devalue the renminbi, because China's exports would become less price- competitive compared to exports of the regional countries. However, this "price effect" is only one aspect of the Asian crisis on China. There is also an "income effect" on China if the devaluation leads
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- MAS Occasional Paper No. 13 May 1999 - By Financial and Special Studies Division, Economics Department Executive Summary 1 This paper evaluates the relative proportions of the bias in exchange rate forecasts attributed to expectation error and a time-varying risk premium, using monthly survey data for the Malaysian Ringgit, the Indonesian Rupiah, the Philippine Peso and the Thai Baht over the period December 1996 to December 1998 as a direct measure of exchange rate expectations. 2